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psychojoe
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 Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 1:32 pm Post subject: Recruiting analysis |
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A few days back I posted a question on the football recruiting forum about whether anyone had done an analysis after the fact of recruiting classes, as compared to the Rivals/Scout rankings when they were signed. Terry commented that he did not know of anyone who had done so, and that it would be a very time consuming enterprise. With twenty or so recruits to evaluate after the fact it certainly would be. I decided to give this a whirl with our basketball recruiting. I will compare the Rivals rankings of each player and then evaluate their career as follows:
5 At least All SEC
4 Starter or major contributor for multiple years
3 Solid contributor
2 Minor contributor
1 Never got in school or never played
Let's start with 2002, the earliest year rivals has data available
Our class was:
Kennedy Winston (4 star)
Chuck Davis (3 star)
Evan Brock (3 star)
Emmett Thomas (3 star)
Average expectation 3.25
Winston left after three years, but gave us two all star caliber years. I'd give him a 5, but can understand if you think a 4 is appropriate.
Chuck Davis missed 2/3 of his senior year when he blew out an ACL. He started as a soph and junior and up until his injury as a senior. Clearly a 4 is correct.
Evan Brock was a key reserve and spot starter in his career. His athleticism was off the charts, but his shooting skills limited his role. He was a defensive stopper/rebounder, usually the first big man off the bench. A solid 3.
Emmett Thomas was a transfer from South Alabama who gave us some time as a super sub type off the bench, and one year as a starter. I'd give him a 4.
Clearly, since all the players in this class contributed meaningfully, and at least up to expectations, this was a good group.
Class evaluation 4.0, above Rivals expectation.
I'll continue year by year later.
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"Panem et circenses"
Juvenal
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psychojoe
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| Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 6:23 am Post subject: |
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Next up, 2003
Jemareo Davidson -4 star
Akini Atkins - 3 star
Shawn Taylor - 3 star
Justin Jonus - 3 star
JeMareo started a good bit as a freshman and was a full time starter the next three years, being picked All SEC in his senior year, in spite of some personal tragedy. He improved each year he was at Bama. Give him 5 stars
Akini Atkins was a very thin but athletic 2 or 3. He was redshirted as a freshman, played sparingly his second year, but transferred after that over playing time issues. I haven't heard anything of him since he left Alabama. 2 stars
Shawn Taylor was a legitimate seven footer, but he was so thin that Jemareo Davidson seemed like a power lifter by comparison. He too was redshirted as a freshan, saw a little action as a soph and then transferred over playing time. 2 stars
Justin Jonus turned down offers from smaller schools and walked on at Alabama. He was later awarded a scholarship. A deadly outside shooter, he got a good opportunity to play his second year, but his lack of quickness made him a defensive liability, and he lost his laying time to more athletic players. He too transferred, to Troy. He actually reappeared in Coleman last year when Troy visited Coleman. 2 stars
Davidson was everything we hoped for when we signed him, and maybe a little more. What happened to the rest of this class was disappointing, and it hurt us depth wise. Class expectation coming in, 3.25, outgoing 2.75.
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"Panem et circenses"
Juvenal
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psychojoe
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| Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 12:37 pm Post subject: |
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Now for 2004--
Ron Steele - 5 star
Glenn Miles - 4 star
Al Weber - 4 star
Jean Felix - 4 star
Most of us were really excited about this group, as it looked like a top notch class.
Ron started off with a bang, with outstanding freshman and sophomore years. Since then knee injuries have either kept him off the court or greatly limited his effectiveness. One year to go, but at this point I give him a 4.
Glenn Miles was almost as well thought of in HS in this area as RS was. As a combo guard he was thought to be able to at least give back up minutes at PG as well as play the 2. Something went haywire in fall practice of his freshman year and he mysteriously left the team, never seeing the court. Rating = 1
Al Weber was an offensive machine in HS, and we certainly thought he'd be a productive wing scorer. He played sporadically as a freshman, almost lasting out the season before he left the team. Rating = 2.
Jean Felix was a very good off the bench player as a junior, giving relief minutes to both Shelton and Winston. He was a very good defender and an explosive scorer. As a senior he became a starter, and while he was still a staunch defender he wasn't an offensive factor with the glorious exception of the NCAA game against Marquette. Rating = 3.
The defections in this class hit us really hard, with RS having to play a lot of minutes each game both his freshman and sophomore years because of them.
Expectation 4.25 Result 2.25
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"Panem et circenses"
Juvenal
Last edited by psychojoe on Tue Jul 15, 2008 1:37 pm; edited 1 time in total
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TerryP
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| Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 1:26 pm Post subject: |
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| This is some good stuff Joe! Well done!
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psychojoe
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| Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 3:22 pm Post subject: |
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Thanks for the kind words, Terry.
On to 2005
Richard Hendrix 5 star
Alonzo Gee 4 star
Yameni Coleman 3 star
Ray George 4 star
Brandon Hollinger 3 star
Richard gave us everything we wanted except for a fourth year. Definitely a 5
Alonzo Gee has had his good moments as well as bad, but overall he has been a plus, a 4 at this point.
Yameni Coleman came in as a big body with raw skills. He has developed some and does give us aon off the bench player who can bang bodies with anyone, rebound and play defense. Give him a three.
I remember the glowing reports we saw regarding the exploits of Ray George in Atlanta HS circles. It looked like he was going to come in and be the second guard who would come in and score as well as give RS a breather at the point. Unfortunately he never got his academics in order and never made it into school. Rating = 1.
Brandon Hollinger was a late addition to this group. I suspect he was added when the staff realized that George might not qualify. He has 2 guard skills and a point guard body. He has done everything we've asked to, and played very hard in some tough circumstances. He was signed as a role player, and that he has done. Rating = 3.
All of this group is still around except for Hendrix and George, so the ratings could change. Class rating coming in 3.8, and at this point they rate as 3.2, due to George not making it. After we had lost Miles and Weber the year before, not getting George in school was a blow, but the rest of this class has done quiite well.
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Juvenal
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shipley00
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| Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:13 am Post subject: |
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| psychojoe wrote: | Now for 2004--
Jean Felix was a very good off the bench player as a junior, giving relief minutes to both Shelton and Winston. He was a very good defender and an explosive scorer. As a senior he became a starter, and while he was still a staunch defender he wasn't an offensive factor with the glorious exception of the NCAA game against Marquette. Rating = 3.
The defections in this class hit us really hard, with RS having to play a lot of minutes each game both his freshman and sophomore years because of them.
Expectation 4.25 Result 2.25 |
I'd give Felix a 3.5 solely based on his defense. Our perimeter defense dropped after he left.
Dead on with the rest! Nice work.
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psychojoe
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| Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 6:32 am Post subject: |
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Thanks, Shipley. This was a first attempt. I will try to refine the system a bit. I debated about a 3 or 4 for Felix but had no provision for an in betwwen rating. I have a string of meetings today, so it may be tomorrow before I get to the most recent classes.
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psychojoe
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| Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 4:28 pm Post subject: |
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2006 class
Due to the attrition I've mentioned we returned only six scholarship players for the new season, so we needed to sign a big group. We did.
Justin Tubbs 3 star
Mikail Torrance 3 star
Demetrius Jemison 3 star
Verice Cloyd 3 star
Avery Jukes 3 star
Mikail Riley 3 star
No really big names in this group. We never got in the hunt for Jemison's HS team mate, Stanley Robinson.
Unfortunately we can close the books on four of these guys:
Verice Cloyd came in hyped as the greatest scoring machine in Mississippi since Hollywood Robinson. Unfortunately for us he never came close to living up to the hype, played only in a couiple of mop up games and left school during his freshman year. Give him a 1.
Avery Jukes hardly played as a freshman and left school as well, He gets a 1 also.
Justin Tubbs had some good moments as a freshman, coming off the bench with some energy on defense, as well as knocking down some threes. As a sophomore he lost PT to Senario Hillman, but might have regained some when given an opportunity in mid season, but never found his shooting stroke this past season. He has announced intentions to transfer to MTSU, and I understand his release has been granted. I'd give him 2.5.
Mikail Riley came to us late when Willie Anderson left UAB, and he gave us two good years. He was easily our best perimeter shooter, and developed into an adequate defender by the end of his senior year. I loved the way he finished his career at Bama, coming down the stretch letting it all hang out. Rate him as a 4.
Demetrius Jemison has been a solid role player for us. He's a little small for his posiition, but sound in his fundamentals. He has two years to go, but right now I'd rate him as a 3.
Mikail Torrance is a tweener. He is big for a PG, but doesn't have a great handle, and doesn't shoot well enough from the wings to be a 2. He was thrust into the PG role because of Ron's injuries, and has had some good moments and some bad. With RS back and juco Anthony Brock coming in, it is hard to see where his PT will come from in the new season. I'd give him a 2.5
Expectation 3.0 performance (so far) 2.33.
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"Panem et circenses"
Juvenal
Last edited by psychojoe on Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:37 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Bama1966
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| Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 5:09 pm Post subject: |
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Darn good stuff Joe!!!
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psychojoe
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 8:55 am Post subject: |
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On to the 2007 class
Three in this class:
Rico Pickett 4 star
Senario Hillman 4 star
Justin Knox 4 star
This was a well thought of, if small group. Coming in we thought Pickett and Hillman would play early, and it might take Knox a little longer to see the floor. Then came the news that RS would not play, and all of a sudden much more was expected of Pickett.
Rico is quite an athlete, and he had some good moments for us. He was a decent defender because of his athleticism, good in transition and in taking it to the basket. Like many freshmen he was erratic and at times out of control on the floor. By the end of the season, though Pickett still started, Brandon Hollinger was on the floor at PG for us when the game was on the line. He just never seemed to progress as the year wore on. For various reasons he and the coaching staff got cross ways with each other after the season, and he opted to leave school. Rating 2.5
Senario Hillman is IMO the best athlete we've had on the BB team since Gerald Wallace. Great speed and jumping ability as well as quickness and agility. His offensive skills were primitive to say the least, but by the end of the season he was a terrific on the ball defender. If he develops an offensive game he can be a special player for us. At this point a 3.0, but he is one of our guys that I expect big things from this year.
Justin Knox did not see a lot of PT last year, playing behind Hendrix, Jemison and Coleman, but he did give hints of promise when he was on the court. When RH missed the Ky game with a back injury Knox played pretty well, really battling the Ky players in spite of his lack of experience. I'd give him a 2.5 at this point, but he has the big body and the offensive skills to become a contributor.
Incoming expectation 4.0, after 1st season 2.67.
_________________
"Panem et circenses"
Juvenal
Last edited by psychojoe on Thu Aug 14, 2008 2:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
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psychojoe
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 10:05 am Post subject: |
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To finish up, here is the 2008 class:
JaMychal Green 5 star
Tony Mitchell 4 star
Andrew Steele 4 star
Anthony Brock 3 star
Average = 4.0
This is an important class. We really need for Green and Brock to contribute right away, so we'll have an inside presence and RS won't be playing 35+ minutes per game. I expect Tony Mitchell to contribute early as well, pushing Gee to become a better, more consistent player. With Hollinger and Hillman at the 2, there won't be pressure on Andrew early, except that of being the younger brother of a great player. I'm looking forward to mid October, when practice starts.
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"Panem et circenses"
Juvenal
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